Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 5.850306 6.426291 7.060524 7.815655 8.696793 9.700667 10.942818
2024-10-27 4.858990 5.604540 6.489456 7.635530 9.108780 10.980751 13.612290
2024-11-03 4.324499 5.145563 6.168853 7.572170 9.505373 12.173508 16.334764
2024-11-10 4.136313 5.061324 6.266827 8.012105 10.586360 14.457550 21.232149
2024-11-17 3.898560 4.872593 6.186307 8.171632 11.268912 16.283672 26.040319
2024-11-24 3.610242 4.580850 5.922686 8.015601 11.422545 17.269156 29.695914
2024-12-01 3.404978 4.381928 5.764445 7.987460 11.761351 18.634404 34.705024
2024-12-08 3.189862 4.149720 5.532722 7.810183 11.808713 19.457646 38.891937
2024-12-15 3.038277 3.996502 5.402998 7.777635 12.099068 20.824504 45.234166
2024-12-22 2.900974 3.853600 5.275273 7.730470 12.349402 22.168890 52.443888
2024-12-29 2.832850 3.808140 5.293362 7.931130 13.106344 24.875998 66.455425
2025-01-05 2.678631 3.622038 5.073205 7.687034 12.926780 25.274832 72.362388
2025-01-12 2.515099 3.422498 4.833519 7.414390 12.712571 25.710517 79.980018
2025-01-19 2.383175 3.266432 4.657083 7.246253 12.711774 26.784537 92.754789
2025-01-26 2.284176 3.155549 4.546384 7.187582 12.941807 28.617985 113.639031
2025-02-02 2.273981 3.184043 4.671179 7.594417 14.333683 34.743340 185.979254
2025-02-09 2.221084 3.139614 4.665853 7.741732 15.137472 39.475570 280.933471
2025-02-16 2.128185 3.024118 4.526687 7.597646 15.161693 41.315840 358.342340
2025-02-23 2.059728 2.945484 4.447836 7.571648 15.500444 44.717557 521.352743
2025-03-02 1.976930 2.838743 4.311252 7.407792 15.426099 46.293004 684.797441
2025-03-09 1.918139 2.769698 4.239253 7.377694 15.732947 49.970197 1112.832011
2025-03-16 1.861497 2.701590 4.164636 7.334070 15.994076 53.700216 1997.129881
2025-03-23 1.837251 2.687678 4.190121 7.519598 17.008672 62.813393 9760.801185